Value betting – Beginner’s Guide Part 2

How does it really work?

Let us describe the situation convert the context of real betting. Bookmakers hire the best experts, who subsequently based on large amounts of data and statistical models predicting the probability of specific results of individual matches. This will cause some percentage of probability, which is then converted to a format decimálního course. That would be a fair rate. However, it can sázkovka takes a few% for themselves, so the resulting offered rate will be slightly lower.

If you bet 1x per month, you probably will not care that the course as 0.05 lower but if you bet often, these small differences add up over time and put together a fairly significant amount. Now some (perhaps again) start scratching his head. It is well known that most bettors end up in the red. If one of them (the majority) do not belong, you just have to be careful as to what to matches (such as training) bet. The ideal procedure is to create several accounts at various online sázkovek and then you always bet u sázkovky that offers the best rate. Favorable exchange rates (and great bonuses) for example, offer sázkovky Sportingbet, Unibet and Betway.

Now we are slowly getting to the point regarding which lead most tumultuous debates. How to determine whether the course is the value and whether it is a good bet? For this example, we will work with markets that has three possible outcomes, with all their classic football match (home win, draw or away win).

Say Chelsea plays at home against Everton and to win it is an odds of 1.20 (which is the usual course at the Chelsea home matches against opponents not belonging to the top six Premier League). Kurz 1.20 simply means that Chelsea has by sázkovek chance of winning just 83.33%. Chelsea is in our example the strongest team league, has no injured players and it works like a well oiled machine. Conversely Everton has several injured players and also result in a crisis. It pays to bet?

Opponents of value betting would immediately say that this is a very good opportunity to achieve a 20% profit. Probably would still deliver something like “Money in the bank as safe, but you get a 20% interest in 90 minutes!” Proponents of value betting, however, said the sentence as “A bet on Chelsea’d had her course was not offered a 1.01 1 20? One percent is 90 minutes’ still good, is not it? “Hmm … if you want to bet on such low odds, you have to realize one thing. Say you bet with odds of 1.20 – in this case, you must have at least 5 consecutive successful tips that you can then afford a defeat. If you bet $ 100, you get odds of 1.20 with a profit of $ 20th If you lose even one bet of five, you will be the bottom line in the red.

Now let’s look at the historical results of matches Chelsea against Everton at Stamford Bridge. The last five matches ended 2x 3x home win and a draw. Everton does have problems, but the rate of 1.20 is too low for you risked. About interestingly enough it seems rate 10.00 Everton to win or draw at the rate of 4.50.

Summary

You have to realize that value means that the rate is higher than you think should be. If you have a betting opportunity in which team you think will win A in 50% of cases – and it is also an odds 2.20 – you’ve found value. If your guess is correct, bookmaker and you were wrong (in the long run) you earn.

If betting newbie, you should concentrate on courses offered as carefully as the result itself. Although sometimes I can be (almost) sure that team A beats Team B, but if it is to win A team offered a very low rate, value probably will not find here. I’d rather take the time to find another betting opportunity – one that will have a fair courses and give you a positive value.

Value betting – Beginner’s Guide

Value betting is a relatively new concept based on the assumption that some teams are bookies overrated or underrated vice versa. Among fans and opponents of this concept leads to lengthy debate, however long-term results speak for themselves – betting value in the long run it works. If you proceed in this way only in the short term, it is possible that only bookies pour into the pockets of your hard earned money, but in the long term value is the key to success.

Basic information about Value Betting

To understand the concept of value betting, you must first understand how it works in general betting market. Probably the best example in this case the coin toss. We all know that when a coin toss, catch can throw in two ways – either fall heads or tails. The probability of each outcome is thus 50%. If a 50% probability to convert courses, we get a decimal rate of 2.00. That is a fair rate. If you toss a coin 100 times, theoretically should 50x and 50x fall virgin eagle. In the real world, although it will always be variations, which will reduce the growing number of throws, but either way, after a large number of throws you end up practically to zero.

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Imagine two guys who bet over the amount of $ 50 for a match. One of them loses $50 get the other $100? No. If that were so, sportsbook would bet that no profit and you certainly know that every entrepreneur is targeting a profit (which is in the sports betting sector is relatively high, which explains the large number of emerging sázkovek).

Bookmaker you thereby the coin toss will offer a course should be 1.90. In such a situation, one player has lost $ 50 and the other would win $ 95, so sázkovce the remaining profit (commission) $ 5 from each bet. Now, imagine that a coin toss must 100x. Your total investment will be $ 5,000 and expect to win 50 times. However, instead they ended up at zero, due to the lower rate you end up in the red.

Maybe now catching behind your head and say that you never bet. Such an approach, however, is erroneous, because sometimes sázkovky mistake, and you can use it. In addition, we are in the article Betting Strategies – I 55% success earns you a lot of money talked about that earn betting is not so difficult – unless you meet all the relevant conditions and you will be betting approach seriously.