Value betting – Beginner’s Guide Part 2

How does it really work?

Let us describe the situation convert the context of real betting. Bookmakers hire the best experts, who subsequently based on large amounts of data and statistical models predicting the probability of specific results of individual matches. This will cause some percentage of probability, which is then converted to a format decimálního course. That would be a fair rate. However, it can sázkovka takes a few% for themselves, so the resulting offered rate will be slightly lower.

If you bet 1x per month, you probably will not care that the course as 0.05 lower but if you bet often, these small differences add up over time and put together a fairly significant amount. Now some (perhaps again) start scratching his head. It is well known that most bettors end up in the red. If one of them (the majority) do not belong, you just have to be careful as to what to matches (such as training) bet. The ideal procedure is to create several accounts at various online sázkovek and then you always bet u sázkovky that offers the best rate. Favorable exchange rates (and great bonuses) for example, offer sázkovky Sportingbet, Unibet and Betway.

Now we are slowly getting to the point regarding which lead most tumultuous debates. How to determine whether the course is the value and whether it is a good bet? For this example, we will work with markets that has three possible outcomes, with all their classic football match (home win, draw or away win).

Say Chelsea plays at home against Everton and to win it is an odds of 1.20 (which is the usual course at the Chelsea home matches against opponents not belonging to the top six Premier League). Kurz 1.20 simply means that Chelsea has by sázkovek chance of winning just 83.33%. Chelsea is in our example the strongest team league, has no injured players and it works like a well oiled machine. Conversely Everton has several injured players and also result in a crisis. It pays to bet?

Opponents of value betting would immediately say that this is a very good opportunity to achieve a 20% profit. Probably would still deliver something like “Money in the bank as safe, but you get a 20% interest in 90 minutes!” Proponents of value betting, however, said the sentence as “A bet on Chelsea’d had her course was not offered a 1.01 1 20? One percent is 90 minutes’ still good, is not it? “Hmm … if you want to bet on such low odds, you have to realize one thing. Say you bet with odds of 1.20 – in this case, you must have at least 5 consecutive successful tips that you can then afford a defeat. If you bet $ 100, you get odds of 1.20 with a profit of $ 20th If you lose even one bet of five, you will be the bottom line in the red.

Now let’s look at the historical results of matches Chelsea against Everton at Stamford Bridge. The last five matches ended 2x 3x home win and a draw. Everton does have problems, but the rate of 1.20 is too low for you risked. About interestingly enough it seems rate 10.00 Everton to win or draw at the rate of 4.50.

Summary

You have to realize that value means that the rate is higher than you think should be. If you have a betting opportunity in which team you think will win A in 50% of cases – and it is also an odds 2.20 – you’ve found value. If your guess is correct, bookmaker and you were wrong (in the long run) you earn.

If betting newbie, you should concentrate on courses offered as carefully as the result itself. Although sometimes I can be (almost) sure that team A beats Team B, but if it is to win A team offered a very low rate, value probably will not find here. I’d rather take the time to find another betting opportunity – one that will have a fair courses and give you a positive value.

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